Tanta poesia na Science é raro. Eu confesso que me emocionei. Até tenho outro amor ao meu modelinho....
My world embraces and celebrates them all. All manner of models, to be chosen (like a set of tools) to suit the particular task. Lay stakeholders in the here and now, doing what they do best (imagining their worst fears and best hopes for the future) with their mental models, fuzzy calculus, or belief network models. Webs of tentative cause-effect couples fed, perhaps, by bizarre boundary and initial conditions, hence to deduce a rich heterogeneity of future patterns of environmental behavior--some radically different from what we have come to know and love. Quantitative modelers (engineers indeed) doing what they do best: mobilizing the current science base (uncertainties, warts, and all) into a computational model; thus to assess the plausibility of the imagined futures, under gross uncertainty; thus to identify what we would most like to understand much better, in the here and now, about the uncertainties (be they elements of the science, the policies, or the technologies) that are crucial to discriminating between the reachability of our worst fears or our greatest hopes. Nothing stands still: not images of the future, nor our qualitative models, nor our quantitative models. Call this living in a "recursive predictive world" [as I have labeled it elsewhere (4)], a collective form of adaptive community learning. We condition the step we take today on contemplation of where we might be several steps hence and revisit such conditioning and contemplation each and every day. No hint here of forecasting the state of nature at some point on the globe at some instant in the future.
M. Bruce Beck in Science 13 April 2007: Vol. 316. no. 5822, pp. 202 - 203 DOI: 10.1126/science.1140778
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