Darfur: assim a olho, 50 000 mortos e a contar

[...] The U.N. generates humanitarian profiles of people counted in the camps and people surrounding the camps who together constitute conflict-affected people who are also in need of assistance. These counts are important to the United Nations as the basis of planning and support. The United Nations does not ask specific questions about violence, but the numbers generated are essential in calculating the population at risk, which we used to estimate the actual numbers of deaths in West Darfur. West Darfur refugees in Chad are not included in these profiles. We used a State Department survey and U.N. refugee camp counts to complete the estimate of the West Darfur population at risk. [...]


[...] We conservatively estimate 19 months of mortality in West Darfur as 49,288 (with a range from 40,850 to 67,598) by summing the means for estimated deaths between the high and low monthly figures in the right side of the figure. When the right tail of this distribution is extended to May 2006, the total number of deaths is 65,296 in West Darfur alone, with a range from 57,506 to 85,346. This estimate covers 31 months of conflict that, as of August 2006, has been under way for 43 months. If the further 12 months of conflict were well estimated, and/or if all or most missing or disappeared persons were presumed dead, the death estimate would be much higher. [...]

Hagan & Palloni, Death in Darfur. Science 313, n.5793, 1578-1579, 15 September 2006.